10/8/19 note: No activations, more chop. There is just nothing to update you on besides more time in the chop box. The numbers have not changed, we are going sideways until SPX activates one of our levels.
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
10/3/19 note: No activations, more chop. The chop rule has paid dividends now for days, weeks, months and a look at the weekly time targets indicate this could go on for the foreseeable future. Until we see an activation, patience will be required=the market is consolidating. The next monthly target is Feb 2020 and we wont see another quarterly target until 2022. Monthly targets suggest monthly price moves, quarterly targets suggest quarterly price moves-larger moves than the current chop zone. With the next monthly target being months away, we are settling in for the slow grind.
Not doing anything is doing something. Its avoiding the pain that comes with trading based on anticipation rather than objective targets. We will move when the market decides to move. Until then we will limit our trading activity to watching and waiting!
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
10/2/19 note: Nothing new to report, no activations. Even with the price drama today, $SPX did not activate a level. The market is still well within the 2 month old chop box. The activation levels are listed below, until we see an activation of one of those levels its still the same old chop.
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
10/1/19 note: Nothing new to report, no activations-all choppy price action. Not posting as often because there is nothing new to report. We need to see an activation to give us direction.
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
9/26/19 note: Nothing new to report, no activations-all choppy price action. We have been in this chop zone now for approximately two months. The longer we stay in this zone the larger the move will likely be coming out of it. Patience until the market lays its cards down on the table…
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
9/24/19 note: No activations today. We discussed recently how the market was in between the daily bull level and the trend support line coming up from the Dec 2018 and June 2019 lows. On Friday SPX closed below the trendline, today it retested that trendline from below then fell into the close. Something had to give, either the daily bull level or that support trend line, resistance held and support failed.
We had a weekly time target in place for this week and as of this writing we have already seen a lower low than last week making the target a direct hit. We see a number of weekly time targets from different models lining up between now and the end of October so it could be choppy between now and then. So far, still no activations so all this we are seeing through today is more chop.
We would need to see a daily close below the daily bear level (2836) (or above the daily bull) to indicate the market wants to move again (instead of chop). Lets see what happens tomorrow.
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
9/20/19 note: No activations today, $SPX once again tested our daily bull level at 3019 and was rejected. This time, the trendline that has been supporting the market was breached on a closing basis to the downside. Add to this the fact that we are entering the weekly time nexus we have been writing about for weeks. Then add in the fact that we are entering a second weekly time nexus which is the one year anniversary of the major decline that ended in December 2018 (21 September 2018 was the year’s high before it rolled over). And all of this time action is taking place at the intersection of time and major overhead resistance (listed below).
What all this ^^ tells us is its decision time. The market is going to have to lay its cards on the table soon. While the market makes up its mind, our job is to watch and wait. Here at TPR, we do not trade on anticipation which means when the market does not activate any of our levels, we do not trade. This requires patience. Lets see what the market decides to do. We had a monthly time target in July, which did end up being a high (3028) that has not been breached for almost 2 months. That said, with no new highs for almost 2 months we have not seen a monthly bear level activated either. What we have seen is chop.
With the market banging its head against major resistance and a weekly time target upon us it would appear that we will see some kind of movement soon. From the perspective of time, we have gone up into this weekly time target which would suggest the opposite afterward. Seasonal price action would also suggest downward bias on the other side of this target. That’s what time says but time has to be confirmed by price. We get price verdicts through bull and bear activations. Until we see another activation, we will do nothing but watch and wait!
Have a great weekend!
**Caution**
Major Harmonic Resistance Level: 3044.44
Major Fibonacci Extension Level Resistance: 3047.34
